Poker hands Royal flush Straight flush Four of a kind Full house Flush Three of a kind Two pair Pair High card A royal flush is an ace high straight flush. A straight flush is a five-card straight, all in the same suit. Four of a kind, or quads, are four cards of equal value. A full house contains a set (3) of cards of one value and a pair of. The actual poker odds of hitting an inside straight on the turn and then by the river are 8.5% and 16.5% respectively. Pretty darn close. Just remember this at the table: double your outs for your chance of hitting on the turn and multiply by 4 to see how often you’ll hit by the river. Figuring out correct Hold’em poker odds without much math.

This is a very important lesson and can also be quite intimidating to a lot of people as we are going to discuss Poker Math!

But there is no need for you to be intimidated, Poker Maths is very simple and we will show you a very simple method in this lesson.

You won’t need to carry a calculator around with you or perform any complex mathematical calculations.

What is Poker Math?

As daunting as it sounds, it is simply a tool that we use during the decision making process to calculate the Pot Odds in Poker and the chances of us winning the pot.

Remember, Poker is not based on pure luck, it is a game of probabilities, there are a certain number of cards in the deck and a certain probability that outcomes will occur. So we can use this in our decision making process.

Every time we make a decision in Poker it is a mathematical gamble, what we have to make sure is that we only take the gamble when the odds are on in our favour. As long as we do this, in the long term we will always come out on top.

When to Use Poker Maths

Poker Maths is mainly used when we need to hit a card in order to make our hand into a winning hand, and we have to decide whether it is worth carrying on and chasing that card.

To make this decision we consider two elements:

1. How many “Outs” we have (Cards that will make us a winning hand) and how likely it is that an Out will be dealt.
2. What are our “Pot Odds” – How much money will we win in return for us taking the gamble that our Out will be dealt

We then compare the likelihood of us hitting one of our Outs against the Pot Odds we are getting for our bet and see if mathematically it is a good bet.

The best way to understand and explain this is by using a hand walk through, looking at each element individually first, then we’ll bring it all together in order to make a decision on whether we should call the bet.

Consider the following situation where you hold A 8 in the big blind. Before the flop everyone folds round to the small blind who calls the extra 5c, to make the Total pot before the Flop 20c (2 players x 10c). The flop comes down K 9 4 and your opponent bets 10c. Let’s use Poker Math to make the decision on whether to call or not.

Poker Outs

When we are counting the number of “Outs” we have, we are looking at how many cards still remain in the deck that could come on the turn or river which we think will make our hand into the winning hand.

In our example hand you have a flush draw needing only one more Club to make the Nut Flush (highest possible). You also hold an overcard, meaning that if you pair your Ace then you would beat anyone who has already hit a single pair on the flop.

From the looks of that flop we can confidently assume that if you complete your Flush or Pair your Ace then you will hold the leading hand. So how many cards are left in the deck that can turn our hand into the leading hand?

• Flush – There are a total of 13 clubs in the deck, of which we can see 4 clubs already (2 in our hand and 2 on the flop) that means there are a further 9 club cards that we cannot see, so we have 9 Outs here.
• Ace Pair – There are 4 Ace’s in the deck of which we are holding one in our hand, so that leaves a further 3 Aces that we haven’t seen yet, so this creates a further 3 Outs.

So we have 9 outs that will give us a flush and a further 3 outs that will give us Top Pair, so we have a total of 12 outs that we think will give us the winning hand.

So what is the likelihood of one of those 12 outs coming on the Turn or River?

Professor’s Rule of 4 and 2

An easy and quick way to calculate this is by using the Professor’s rule of 4 and 2. This way we can forget about complex calculations and quickly calculate the probability of hitting one of our outs.

The Professor’s Rule of 4 and 2

• After the Flop (2 cards still to come… Turn + River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs = Number of Outs x 4
• After the Turn (1 card to come.. River)
  Probability we will hit our Outs – Number of Outs x 2

So after the flop we have 12 outs which using the Rule of 4 and 2 we can calculate very quickly that the probability of hitting one of our outs is 12 x 4 = 48%. The exact % actually works out to 46.7%, but the rule of 4 and 2 gives us a close enough answer for the purposes we need it for.

If we don’t hit one of our Outs on the Turn then with only the River left to come the probability that we will hit one of our 12 Outs drops to 12 x 2 = 24% (again the exact % works out at 27.3%)

To compare this to the exact percentages lets take a look at our poker outs chart:

As you can see the Rule of 4 and 2 does not give us the exact %, but it is pretty close and a nice quick and easy way to do the math in your head.

Now lets summarise what we have calculated so far:

• We estimate that to win the hand you have 12 Outs
• We have calculated that after the flop with 2 cards still to come there is approximately a 48% chance you will hit one of your outs.

Now we know the Odds of us winning, we need to look at the return we will get for our gamble, or in other words the Pot Odds.

Pot Odds

When we calculate the Pot Odds we are simply looking to see how much money we will win in return for our bet. Again it’s a very simple calculation…

Pot Odds Formula

Pot Odds = Total Pot divided by the Bet I would have to call

What are the pot odds after the flop with our opponent having bet 10c?

• Total Pot = 20c + 10c bet = 30 cents
• Total Bet I would have to make = 10 cents
• Therefore the pot odds are 30 cents divided by 10 cents or 3 to 1.

What does this mean? It means that in order to break even we would need to win once for every 3 times we lose. The amount we would win would be the Total Pot + the bet we make = 30 cents + 10 cents = 40 cents.

Break Even Percentage

Poker Statistics To Memorize People

Now that we have worked out the Pot Odds we need to convert this into a Break Even Percentage so that we can use it to make our decision. Again it’s another simple calculation that you can do in your head.

Break Even Percentage

Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by (Pot odds added together)

Let me explain a bit further. Pot Odds added together means replace the “to” with a plus sign eg: 3 to 1 becomes 3+1 = 4. So in the example above our pot odds are 3 to 1 so our Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Note – This only works if you express your pot odds against a factor of 1 eg: “3 to 1” or “5 to 1” etc. It will not work if you express the pot odds as any other factor eg: 3 to 2 etc.

So… Should You call?

So lets bring the two elements together in our example hand and see how we can use the new poker math techniques you have learned to arrive at a decision of whether to continue in the hand or whether to fold.

To do this we compare the percentage probability that we are going to hit one of our Outs and win the hand, with the Break Even Percentage.

Should I Call?

• Call if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is greater than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage
• Fold if…… Probability of Hitting an Out is less than Pot Odds Break Even Percentage

Our calculations above were as follows:

• Probability of Hitting an Out = 48%
• Break Even Percentage = 25%

If our Probability of hitting an out is higher than the Break Even percentage then this represents a good bet – the odds are in our favour. Why? Because what we are saying above is that we are going to get the winning hand 48% of the time, yet in order to break even we only need to hit the winning hand 25% of the time, so over the long run making this bet will be profitable because we will win the hand more times that we need to in order to just break even.

Hand Walk Through #2

Lets look at another hand example to see poker mathematics in action again.

Before the Flop:

• Blinds: 5 cents / 10 cents
• Your Position: Big Blind
• Your Hand: K 10
• Before Flop Action: Everyone folds to the dealer who calls and the small blind calls, you check.

Two people have called and per the Starting hand chart you should just check here, so the Total Pot before the flop = 30 cents.

Flop comes down Q J 6 and the Dealer bets 10c, the small blind folds.

Do we call? Lets go through the thought process:

How has the Flop helped my hand?
It hasn’t but we do have some draws as we have an open ended straight draw (any Ace or 9 will give us a straight) We also have an overcard with the King.

How has the Flop helped my opponent?
The Dealer did not raise before the flop so it is unlikely he is holding a really strong hand. He may have limped in with high cards or suited connectors. At this stage our best guess is to assume that he has hit top pair and holds a pair of Queens. It’s possible that he hit 2 pair with Q J or he holds a small pair like 6’s and now has a set, but we come to the conclusion that this is unlikely.

How many Outs do we have?
So we conclude that we are facing top pair, in which case we need to hit our straight or a King to make top pair to hold the winning hand.

• Open Ended Straight Draw = 8 Outs (4 Aces and 4 Nines)
• King Top Pair = 3 Outs (4 Kings less the King in our hand)
• Total Outs = 11 Probability of Winning = 11 x 4 = 44%

What are the Pot Odds?
Total Pot is now 40 cents and we are asked to call 10 cents so our Pot odds are 4 to 1 and our break even % = 100% divided by 5 = 20%.

Decision
So now we have quickly run the numbers it is clear that this is a good bet for us (44% vs 20%), and we make the call – Total Pot now equals 50 cents.

Turn Card

Turn Card = 3 and our opponent makes a bet of 25 cents.

After the Turn Card
This card has not helped us and it is unlikely that it has helped our opponent, so at this point we still estimate that our opponent is still in the lead with top pair.

Outs
We still need to hit one of our 11 Outs and now with only the River card to come our Probability of Winning has reduced and is now = 11 x 2 = 22%

Pot Odds
The Total Pot is now 75 cents and our Pot odds are 75 divided by 25 = 3 to 1. This makes our Break Even percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%

Decision
So now we have the situation where our probability of winning is less than the break even percentage and so at this point we would fold, even though it is a close call.

Summary

Well that was a very heavy lesson, but I hope you can see how Poker Maths doesn’t have to be intimidating, and really they are just some simple calculations that you can do in your head. The numbers never lie, and you can use them to make decisions very easy in Poker.

You’ve learnt some important new skills and it’s time to practise them and get back to the tables with the next stage of the Poker Bankroll Challenge.

Poker Statistics To Memorize Words

Poker Bankroll Challenge: Stage 3

• Stakes: $0.02/$0.04
• Buy In: $3 (75 x BB)
• Starting Bankroll: $34
• Target: $9 (3 x Buy In)
• Finishing Bankroll: $43
• Estimated Sessions: 3

Use this exercise to start to consider your Outs and Pot Odds in your decision making process, and add this tool to the other tools you have already put into practice such as the starting hands chart.

Are you a poker player looking to win big someday? If you are, then you must know the odds of poker hands. After all, poker is a game of skill, not of chance.

Being one of the most popular casino games all over the world, poker has many types. Texas hold ’em poker is one of the most preferred and well-liked poker game types. However, playing the game is not enough to win it, no matter how much you love it.

As with most games, depending on skill alone isn’t enough to succeed. You need enough knowledge on your odds to play poker well. This way, you earn the wisdom to know when you should raise, call, or fold.

Below, we’ve got a guide on the most essential poker statistics you need to know.

Your Invitation to the Best Online Pokies in Australia

Like a punt on the slot machines?

Our top rated slots for October 2019 are the smash-hit online pokie sites: Ruby Fortune and Jackpot City Casino.

These sites include some impressive matched bonuses – up to $750 and $1600 respectively! With the potential for some seriously big wins, here’s your chance to get a piece of the action:

1. Your Odds with Aces

Let’s start this list of poker statistics with one of the strongest cards in the game. What is the probability you’ll get dealt an ace in any hand? The answer is an average of 0.45% or 1 in every 221 hands.

How about if you’re at a full-ring table with 9 other players? What’s the possibility one of them gets dealt an ace? The odds then become once in every 154 times.

Let’s talk about your Texas hold ’em odds of facing an ace with a larger kicker. If you have an ace and a king, there’s a very low possibility of going up against a larger kicker. This is especially true when you’re up against one other player, at 0.002% possibility.

However, the more players you go up against, the bigger these odds become. Against 9 others, your A-K hand has a 0.02% possibility. It’s not too big of a deal though, considering you’ve got the two strongest cards in your hand.

Poker Statistics To Memorize Countries

What if you have an ace and a deuce? Against one player, the odds of you having a lower hand go up to 0.11%. As more players join the table, it rises until it becomes 0.65% chance that you have a lower kicker in your hand versus 9 others.

Those are your chances with aces. Below, we’ll cover more on probability with suits. Note that all of these odds also apply to online poker games.

2. Sweet Suits Stats

While aces are the strongest cards in the game, they’re more powerful with suited cards. Your odds of getting a hand of certain suited cards are once in every 331 hands. Before you get too excited when you see suited cards in your hand, keep in mind that it only improves your hand by 2.5%.

Suited connecters are easier to catch with odds of 1 in every 24.5 hands. When you do get that chance, you have 1 in 119 attempts to flop three cards of your suit. This ideal scenario is a very rare one.

Poker Statistics To Memorize Cheat

Once in every 206 attempts, you will get a suited flop. If you’re the type to play suited cards, be careful. The probability of you flopping a flush is very slim, at 0.8% or 1 in 124.

Of course, your opponent’s chances are as good as yours. What are the odds of you both having suited cards and you both flopping a flush? If you must know, it’s 1 in 205 hands.

Another note on suited connecters: they look beautiful on the table. However, they’re vulnerable to over-pairs. About 80% of the time, an over-pair will beat suited connecters. So be careful playing them.

These are important statistics you should be informed of. Be like pro poker player Jonathan Little, who won $6 million playing Texas hold ’em. As you begin to master these statistics and understand what they mean, your skill will grow with you.

3. Flush and Royal Flush Figures to Remember

Let’s put some bigger numbers on the table. Flush draws are more common than you think. Your chances go up to 34.9% on making a flush after the flop.

That’s more than one-third of the time. If you’re dealt a low hand, it’s a good idea to fold. Even if they’re suited, your chances of flopping a flush are only 1 in 124.

This is the reason why 90% of players who get low numbers fold instead of continuing to play.

If you and your opponent both start with suited cards, that chance gets bigger. The odds are 1 in 205 if you both have suited cards and flop a flush. Once in 434 attempts, three players will have suited cards of identical suits and will all flop a flush. After all, in Texas hold ’em, the flush is a strong and somewhat easy hand to get.

These are essential things to know especially if you plan to join the next World Series of Poker. The 2019 Main Event featured over 8,500 players from 88 different countries.

4. Typical Texas Hold ’Em Poker Statistics

Here’s a good Texas hold ’em percentage on post-flops that you should use:

• You set a flop with your pair once every 9 times or 12% of the time
• If you and your opponent both have pocket pairs, you may both flop a set every 100 flops
• If you have a pair, you can hit a trip on the flop for 1 in 8 odds
• If you got dealt a pair and you’re flopping a set, your odds are 1 in 144
• Once in 97 times, you and your opponent have pairs and will both flop a set

Now, let’s talk about your odds of hitting quads or four of a kind. A quads is your next best hand after a royal and straight flush. The unfortunate thing is that they’re so rare that you’ll only hit a set by the river 1 in every 123 attempts.

The annual spend of a regular poker player is an estimate of 1,758 AUD. If you play smart, you can spend less and earn more. All you need to do is to know your odds and when it’s the right time to fold, raise, and call.

5. More Odds to Remember

You might have heard of the coin-flip or race. It’s a situation when a pair is playing against two overcards. Each has around 46%-57% chance of winning.

Inside straights have a very small percentage of happening on the river. Don’t go after them. You’ll have a better chance folding and saving your money for later use.

Don’t hold out for a premium or top starting hand. The chances of that happening are only 2.1%.

Don’t hold out for odds that are unlikely to happen. You’ll never get started if you do.

6. Unlucky Poker Probabilities and How to Decrease Them

You might want to know about your odds of getting unlucky in the game. How can you prepare for failure if you only acknowledge wins? After all, knowing your chances of getting a bad hand is a great way to stop yourself from risking too much.

The more hands you play, the more accurate your win rate will become. It’s not so much that your luck will get better but that your mental game will develop.

When you understand variance, it will bring you losses, wins, and a higher win rate. Check out this study on the variance of big blinds won per 100 hands. It shows a couple of examples how variance can up your poker player statistics.

The probability of hitting at least one set over 100 hands is almost 50%. On one hand, you have half a chance to hit a set. On the other, you have half a chance to miss at least one set.

However, as we discussed above, when you increase the hands you play, that probability drops. Play over 500 hands. You’ll notice the odds of not hitting a single set might drop to 3%.

Another example is the probability of not getting dealt a single pocket pair. When you play 50 hands, that unlucky statistic is around 5%. When you expand your games to 200 hands, the number drops to less than 0.0005%.

Start Playing Better Poker

That’s it for our guide on poker statistics. Remember – it’s not all about your poker face. A good player understands all the odds on the table.

Start playing more hands now. Or, take a break and check out our guide on the best lotteries to win. If you found this guide helpful, check out our other blog posts today.